US consumer confidence showed promise last month, partially rebounding after five months of consecutive declines, and marking the largest monthly increase in over four years.
According to the latest Consumer Confidence Survey from The Conference Board,
- ◾The Consumer Confidence Index: jumped 12.3 points to 98.0, reversing a sharp drop from April’s 85.7.
- ◾The Present Situation Index: up 4.8 points to 135.9. Based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions.
- ◾The Expectations Index: surged 17.4 points to 72.8. Anything below the threshold of 80 typically signals a recession ahead. Based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions.
“Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline. The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards. The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index — business conditions, employment prospects, and future income — rose from their April lows,” Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board, said in a press statement.
“Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months and regained optimism about future income prospects. Consumers’ assessments of the present situation also improved. However, while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month, ” Guichard added.
Broad-Based Rebound
May’s rebound in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and all income groups. It was also shared across all political affiliations, with the strongest improvements among Republicans. However, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence in all age and income groups was still down due to previous monthly declines, according to the report.
“With the stock market continuing to recover in May, consumers’ outlook on stock prices improved, with 44% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months (up from 37.6% in April) and 37.7% expecting stock prices to decline (down from 47.2% in April). This was one of the survey questions with the strongest improvement after the May 12 trade deal,” Guichard said.
Family’s Current and Future Financial Situations
Consumers’ views of their Family’s Current and Future Financial Situations improved. The share of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months declined. (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index®). Consumers’ expectations for interest rates ahead were little changed, while average 12-month inflation expectations eased to 6.5% after spiking at 7% in April.
Compared to April, purchasing plans for homes and cars and vacation intentions increased notably, with some significant gains after May 12. Plans to buy big-ticket items —including appliances and electronics — were also up.
Likewise, consumers’ intentions to purchase more services in the months ahead, with almost all services categories rising. Dining out remained number one among spending intentions, followed by streaming services, while plans to spend on movies, theater, live entertainment, and sporting events increased the most over last month.
This month’s survey also asked consumers how worried they were about being laid off, not being able to afford necessities, and not being able to afford desired goods and services. Overall, they were more anxious about affordability than job security: Nearly half of consumers said they were concerned about not being able to buy the things they need or want, compared to less than a quarter worried about losing their jobs.
Present Situation
Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions improved in May.
- 21.9% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 19.2% in April.
- 14.0% said business conditions were “bad,” down from 16.3%.
Consumers’ views of the labor market weakened in May.
- 31.8% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up slightly from 31.2% in April.
- 18.6% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 17.5%.
Expectations Six Months Hence
Consumers were less pessimistic about future business conditions in May.
- 19.7% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, up from 15.9% in April.
- 26.7% expected business conditions to worsen, down from 34.9%.
Consumers’ outlook for the labor market outlook was also less negative in May.
- 19.2% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, up from 13.9% in April.
- 26.6% anticipated fewer jobs, down from 32.4%.
Consumers’ outlook for their income prospects turned positive in May.
18.0% of consumers expected their incomes to increase, up from 15.9% in April.
13.8% expected their income to decrease, up from 17.7%.
Assessment of Family Finances and Recession Risk
- Consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Current Financial Situation improved in May.
- Consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Expected Financial Situation also improved.
- Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months declined in May.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, it is a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org.