A new forecast projects record-setting travel spending in the U.S. over the next two years, including gains in the New York-New Jersey region, as preparation ramps up for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
A report released by the U.S. Travel Association and analytics firm Tourism Economics predicts U.S. travel spending will reach $1.37 trillion in 2026 and climb to $1.42 trillion in 2027, adjusted for inflation.
International Travel, World Cup
The report found domestic travel continues to drive the industry, accounting for 87% of all U.S. travel spending. But international travel — which softened in 2025 — is expected to rebound this year and next, with overseas visitor spending projected to rise 1.6% to $178 billion.
That growth could have a major impact in the Meadowlands and across the New York-New Jersey region, where MetLife Stadium will host eight matches during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, including the championship final on July 19.
Tourism officials and business leaders throughout North Jersey have been positioning the region as a gateway destination for international visitors expected to stay, dine, and travel throughout Bergen, Hudson, and Essex counties during the tournament.
Nearby attractions, regional shopping, and local restaurants are expected to benefit from the influx of visitors. Flag City entertainment districts are also being planned, bringing visitors to the parks and downtowns of host cities.
“Travel continues to be one of the most resilient and essential sectors of the U.S. economy,” said Joshua Friedlander, Vice President of Research at the U.S. Travel. “Even with inflation and broader economic pressures, Americans are continuing to invest in experiences, reunions, and business connections that happen through travel.”
Industry analysts noted that while global events such as the World Cup are expected to attract travelers to the United States, outbound international travel by Americans continues to outpace inbound visitation. Factors cited in the report include inflation, energy prices, geopolitical tensions, long visa wait times, shifting global perceptions of the United States, and softer consumer confidence.
The travel and tourism industry accounts for roughly 2.4% to 3.0% of the total U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
“International inbound travel is projected to rebound from a 2.4% decline in 2025 to 1.6% growth, reaching $178 billion in spending, supported by increased travel tied to the World Cup,” according to the report from the U.S. Travel Association.
The report also projects modest gains in business travel, forecasting a 0.8% increase in 2026 as companies continue prioritizing in-person meetings, conventions, and events.
Business and Group Travel
Business travelers typically account for about 20% of total travel volume but up to 60% of lodging and air revenue, making them essential to America’s travel economy.
- Business travel grew 1.1% to $317 billion in 2025 and is forecast to grow 0.7% in 2026 (in real terms) to $319 billion.
- Growth in business travel is expected to remain below leisure travel growth in the near term, before improving from 2027 onward as broader economic conditions stabilize and corporate travel budgets recover.
- Demand is supported by the projected stabilization of corporate budgets and the continued prioritization of in-person engagement.
- Domestic group travel is forecast to grow more rapidly than business travel overall at 1.4% in 2026 to $118 billion.
International Inbound Traffic
- International inbound travel spending fell 2.4% in 2025 to $175 billion but is expected to rebound 1.6% to $178 billion in 2026. That figure is still 18% below 2019 levels (inflation-adjusted). Growth is projected to accelerate in 2027 and beyond.
- Inbound international visits declined by 5.5% in volume in 2025 to 68.3 million, driven primarily by fewer visits from Canada. Inbound visits are expected to grow 3.4% to 70.6 million in 2026, driven by leisure travel and supported by major global events, including the 2026 World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics. A return to the level of 2019 (79 million visits) is not expected until 2029.
- The recovery in 2026 is expected to be uneven across markets. Visits from Canada are projected to increase following a 21% decline in volume in 2025.
- The pace of international inbound travel recovery remains sensitive to policy conditions, global sentiment, and geopolitical stability.
Domestic Leisure Travel
- Following 2.1% growth in 2025, domestic leisure travel spending continues to expand, rising 0.9% to $909 billion in 2026 and growing more quickly in 2027 and beyond.
- Domestic leisure travel is the only vertical in which total spending exceeds 2019 levels (inflation-adjusted).
- Growth in 2026 is expected to be impacted by increased inflation in travel and other goods and services. Travel continues to be prioritized by Americans, but spending is being driven by higher-income households.
- Travelers are expected to shift toward shorter-duration and lower-cost trips, including regional and drive markets, in response to greater costs.
